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Navigating labour market trends and forecasting the year ahead
Ben Wheeler: Hi, Callum, and welcome to the show. Thank you for joining us.
Callum Pickering: No problem at all, Ben.
Ben Wheeler: I'm excited to go through a couple of questions. Let's dive right in. The latest news we have around the unemployment rate, what's your take on that? Did the number come out as you expected?
Callum Pickering: Well, the number was a bit of a shock for many economists and market watchers. We were expecting an unemployment rate of around 4%, but it came in at 4.1%. What's most notable is that employment really wasn't increasing at all at the start of the year, which was surprising. Overall, the labour market is still tight by historical standards, but conditions have eased since September when the unemployment rate was 3.6%.
Ben Wheeler: Interesting. So, what does this mean for job seekers? How might the job market look and feel for them?
Callum Pickering: Well, from a job seeker's perspective, a tight labour market is favorable. It gives them more bargaining power in terms of wages, benefits, and working conditions. Despite the uptick in unemployment, there are still plenty of job opportunities out there. Job postings are up 69% compared to pre-pandemic levels, although they're down from their peak. The job vacancy rate is still double what it was before the pandemic, indicating there's still demand for workers.
Ben Wheeler: That's reassuring for job seekers. Now, what about the impact of global events on the Australian job market? Are we relatively isolated, or do global factors play a significant role?
Callum Pickering: While the Australian economy isn't immune to global factors, it has proven to be quite resilient. Compared to other countries like the UK, where job postings are below pre-pandemic levels, Australia is performing much better. Our job market looks very different, with strong job creation and high job volumes. So, while we're influenced by global events, we're holding up better than some other major markets.
Ben Wheeler: That's good to hear. Switching gears a bit, let's talk about migration. With record levels of migration, do you think we might see even more people moving to Australia for work?
Callum Pickering: It's possible. Australia has experienced strong population growth recently, but I expect migration levels to taper off. There may be political debates around migration, especially concerning issues like the cost of living and housing prices. This could lead to a reevaluation of our migration policies.
Ben Wheeler: Interesting insights. And finally, any predictions for the year ahead?
Callum Pickering: Economic growth may be weak, but I'm cautiously optimistic about the labor market. While the unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly, indicators like job vacancies suggest that employment will remain healthy. So, overall, I see some challenges ahead but also reasons for optimism.
Ben Wheeler: Great. Thank you, Callum, for your time and insights.
Callum Pickering: No problem at all, Ben.
Ben Wheeler: I'm excited to go through a couple of questions. Let's dive right in. The latest news we have around the unemployment rate, what's your take on that? Did the number come out as you expected?
Callum Pickering: Well, the number was a bit of a shock for many economists and market watchers. We were expecting an unemployment rate of around 4%, but it came in at 4.1%. What's most notable is that employment really wasn't increasing at all at the start of the year, which was surprising. Overall, the labour market is still tight by historical standards, but conditions have eased since September when the unemployment rate was 3.6%.
Ben Wheeler: Interesting. So, what does this mean for job seekers? How might the job market look and feel for them?
Callum Pickering: Well, from a job seeker's perspective, a tight labour market is favorable. It gives them more bargaining power in terms of wages, benefits, and working conditions. Despite the uptick in unemployment, there are still plenty of job opportunities out there. Job postings are up 69% compared to pre-pandemic levels, although they're down from their peak. The job vacancy rate is still double what it was before the pandemic, indicating there's still demand for workers.
Ben Wheeler: That's reassuring for job seekers. Now, what about the impact of global events on the Australian job market? Are we relatively isolated, or do global factors play a significant role?
Callum Pickering: While the Australian economy isn't immune to global factors, it has proven to be quite resilient. Compared to other countries like the UK, where job postings are below pre-pandemic levels, Australia is performing much better. Our job market looks very different, with strong job creation and high job volumes. So, while we're influenced by global events, we're holding up better than some other major markets.
Ben Wheeler: That's good to hear. Switching gears a bit, let's talk about migration. With record levels of migration, do you think we might see even more people moving to Australia for work?
Callum Pickering: It's possible. Australia has experienced strong population growth recently, but I expect migration levels to taper off. There may be political debates around migration, especially concerning issues like the cost of living and housing prices. This could lead to a reevaluation of our migration policies.
Ben Wheeler: Interesting insights. And finally, any predictions for the year ahead?
Callum Pickering: Economic growth may be weak, but I'm cautiously optimistic about the labor market. While the unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly, indicators like job vacancies suggest that employment will remain healthy. So, overall, I see some challenges ahead but also reasons for optimism.
Ben Wheeler: Great. Thank you, Callum, for your time and insights.
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Featuring Callam Pickering
Season Three
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ก๐๐๐? Join Queensland Managing Director Ben Wheeler for the latest insights into the employment and job seeker markets. Explore our hot jobs across Australia and some exciting opportunities abroad in New Zealand and the United Kingdom. This week, Ben is joined by special guest, APAC Economist at Indeed, Callam Pickering to discuss the latest labour market developments and trends shaping the talent landscape across Australia, and what this may mean for the year ahead.
About our speaker
Callam Pickering is a Senior Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab with a focus on Australia. Previously he was an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia focusing on household spending and house prices. He also worked as the economic editor at online publications the Business Spectator and Eureka Report where he covered economic issues relating to Australia. Callam earned a Bachelor of economics and accounting from Monash University.
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