Confident? Ready to change jobs? The regular monthly release of jobs data always creates a conversation with clients and talent registered with people2people. Is it the right time to change jobs? Is it a good market? Unfortunately, the unemployment numbers are really not the best indicator of your chances of securing a new role. Similarly, if you are an employer looking to hire new talent, the unemployment figure is not really the best indicator of how hard it is to find that talent. The unemployment rate is a function of the number of people looking for work and those actually working.
Both of these factors really do not determine whether it is a good time to find a new opportunity or secure the best talent in the market. A more insightful correlation can be found by reviewing the confidence of those participating in the market. If you are feeling optimistic and confident that the market is good, then you will take a risk. Once one person moves on, a new opportunity is created for someone else. So although new jobs in the market do create opportunities, by far the most movement in the jobs and employment market is simply determined by people changing jobs, rather than new job creation.
So when you look at consumer confidence historically and in more recent times, you can get a sense of how confident people are and how likely they are to change jobs and create opportunities either to secure a new role or hire in talent who at other times would not be looking. The correlation between employment growth and confidence has been compared by the ABC previously, although the numbers are not recent.
So next time you hear the unemployment number, you should also consider consumer confidence when making an assessment of the jobs market in Australia.